The baby 'bust' and the depreciating health workforce
We are amid a pandemic; therefore, we should expect a ‘pandemic boom’ for babies being born since everyone is isolated in their house. Close loved ones around me are pregnant and expecting or just had a baby. However, the predicted baby boom is looking more like a baby bust. Economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine forecast that the pandemic would lead to 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in 2021 [1]. If we want to make a comparison, according to Statista, in 2018, the number of births per million was 3.79, which means there will be an 8-14 percent decline [2]. The number of births would continue the downward trend in birth weights from 2014 of 3.99 births per million [2].
So do you think they are making the correct prediction or not? So far, the forecasts that Kearney and Levine made are accurate. Nine months after the first lockdowns began in the US, the number of births in the country had declined by 7 percent, according to CBS News by twenty-four health departments. Why is this occurring? One answer to this complex situation is that many childbearing women are Millennials who prioritize career and education before becoming pregnant and considered a parent [3]. In January 2020, the fertility rate sat at 1.73 births per mother, which is a strong contrast from 3.77 births per woman in 1957 [2]. American women have babies later as birth rates decline for women under 35 and rose for the late thirties and early forties [2]. Many Millennials are taking different paths producing or not forming families. In a family, more than 4 in 10 Millennials do not live with a family of their own [3]. White Millennials are more likely than any other racial and ethnic group to be currently cohabitating with a partner; some 13 percent of millennial marriages include spouses of different racial or ethnic backgrounds [3]. Another possible reasoning is that college-educated millennial women are less likely to have a spouse with a college degree [3]. The woman becomes the family's breadwinner, and the pressures of maintaining a home are more of a priority than becoming pregnant.
When it comes to employment amidst this pandemic, remittances to several Latin American nations with close migrant ties to the United States declined sharply in the first half of 2020 [4]. Countries of mention are Colombia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico [4]. Countries in other regions that have seen a similar remittance decline are the Philippines and Bangladesh. Among migrants, the Philippines and Bangladesh account for the world’s top origins of international migrants. Because of a similar remittance trend, there are extended economic shutdowns, which hamper the ability of immigrants to send money to their home countries [4]. Although nurses and midwives account for nearly 50% of the global health workforce, there is a worldwide shortage of health workers, particularly nurses and midwives [5]. The most significant need for nurses and midwives is in South East Asia and Africa [5]. WHO estimates that the world will need an additional 9 million nurses and midwives by 2030 [5]. Having the negative statistic serves as a public service announcement to those looking for jobs and want to specialize in the health workforce to curb the downward trend of employment.
So what does this all mean for us as a society? What is the future of America? Well, demographers believe the fertility rate is below the replacement rate [1]. Is this a good or bad thing? In my opinion, it is somewhat alarming because we will not have enough working youth to continue to support the elderly. Instead of a slow extinction to society that will eventually have the elderly die out, Millennials continue to function at a low birth rate. They have as many births each year as deaths: 2.1 births per woman [1]. The decline in births over time results from both economic distress and progress for women in the workplace with potential long-term implications [1]. When we look at the demographic dividend, we don’t want it to have the shape like a triangle—regular or upside down—we want more of a trapezoidal shape aimed towards the center for the working class. With the current trend, the demographic dividend is shaped like a regular triangle, and we need to find ways to get away from this shape.
In conclusion, don’t let what is occurring around you deceive you. Yes, it feels like we know at least one person who is pregnant and expecting, but according to Statista and other articles, we are aiming for a baby bust, not a baby boom.
By: Evalina C Ikpoh, MPH
Sources:
1. Hoffower, H., 2021. Women are taking a 'rain check' on babies, and it could change the shape of the economy. [online] Business Insider Australia. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/pandemic-baby-bust-could-slow-down-economy-millennials-delaying-kids-2021-4?r=US&IR=T [Accessed 24 May 2021].
2. Statista. 2021. Births in the U.S. 2019 | Statista. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ [Accessed 24 May 2021].
3. Barroso, A., Parker, K. and Bennett, J., 2020. How Millennials Approach Family Life. [online] Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends Project. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/27/as-millennials-near-40-theyre-approaching-family-life-differently-than-previous-generations/ [Accessed 24 May 2021].
4. Noe-Bustamante, L., 2020. Amid COVID-19, remittances to some Latin American nations fell sharply in April, then rebounded. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/31/amid-covid-19-remittances-to-some-latin-american-nations-fell-sharply-in-april-then-rebounded/ [Accessed 24 May 2021].
5. Who.int. 2020. Nursing and midwifery. [online] Available at: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/nursing-and-midwifery [Accessed 24 May 2021].